The Impact of El Niño on the incoming flow rate of the Saguling Hydroelectric Power Plant (PLTA) for Operational Sustainability
Keywords:
climate changeAbstract
This study investigates the impact of El Niño on the inflow dynamics of the Saguling Hydroelectric Power Plant (PLTA), located in West Java, Indonesia. Using 39 years of hydrometeorological data (1986–2024), including rainfall, reservoir inflow, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the research identifies the climatic influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on water availability and power generation sustainability. Results show a significant inverse correlation between ONI and both rainfall (r = –0.41) and inflow (r = –0.45), with El Niño years experiencing a 50–60% reduction in water inputs during dry months. La Niña events, in contrast, enhance inflow and precipitation, thereby supporting reservoir operations. Wavelet transform analysis reveals dominant periodicities in the 2–4 year range, consistent with ENSO cycles. These findings highlight the vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate variability and underscore the importance of adaptive reservoir management strategies based on ENSO projections. The study contributes to strategic planning in energy and water sectors, emphasizing the integration of climate forecasts in maintaining operational continuity of hydropower infrastructure.
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