The Projections of Solar Energy Potential in Indonesia under Climate Change Scenarios : A CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Analysis

Abstract

Indonesia holds significant solar energy potential, making it a key resource in the country’s pathway toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. However, climate variability introduces uncertainties that may impact long-term solar energy production and investment planning. This study investigates the projected impacts of climate change on Indonesia’s solar photovoltaic (PV) potential for the period 2030–2060, utilizing outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Two emission scenarios were considered: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). Key climate variables influencing PV performance surface downwelling shortwave radiation, near-surface air temperature, and wind speed were analyzed. Model outputs were regridded to a 0.25° spatial resolution and bias-corrected through statistical downscaling. Results reveal spatially variable responses of PV potential to future climate change, with a projected decrease during the rainy season and an increase during the dry season in specific regions. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating climate projection uncertainties into national renewable energy strategies, ensuring adaptive and resilient solar energy development in Indonesia under future climate conditions.