An Evaluation of Ulumbu Geothermal Development Drilling Trough Expected Monetary Value Analysis
Keywords:
Decision Tree, Expected Monetary Value, Project Economics, GeothermalAbstract
PT PLN (Persero) plans to drill 10 wells for the development of Ulumbu Geothermal Power Plant (Unit 5, 20 MW), consisting of 5 production wells, 2 contingency wells, and 3 reinjection wells. This campaign includes semi-exploratory drilling in the Lungar area, believed to be the main upflow zone, and proven reservoir drilling in the Wewo area. The decision between starting in Lungar or Wewo requires quantitative analysis using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), factoring in Probability of Success (POS). The EMV analysis showed that drilling from the Wewo area, with a higher POS due to proximity to the proven reservoir, is the optimum alternative. Drilling in Lungar will follow to delineate and confirm a larger geothermal prospect, potentially supporting the development of PLTP Unit 6 (20 MW). By balancing the drilling risks and rewards, the strategy aims to maximize the success of the campaign and ensure the completion of Unit 5 planned capacity.
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