Lyapunov Stability Analysis and Simulation of SIR Modelling for COVID-19 Dynamics in Indonesia
Keywords:
COVID-19, SIR model, reproduction number, lyapunovAbstract
The COVID-19 outbreak began to spread in the world in early 2020 and in Indonesia it began to occur in March 2020. The ability to predict potential transmission of COVID-19 will help the government and health workers to prevent and reduce transmission of COVID -19 and as a simulation of the global trend of this pandemic. One of the models that can be used to model epidemiology is SIR modeling. SIR modeling divides the population into three classes, namely Suspect, Infected, and Recovered. By doing a simulation using virus spread parameters such as contact rate, recovery rate can be known how the spread of the virus will occur. In the estimation, you will also get a reproduction number. Reproduction Number (R_0) is the number of people who can be infected or contracted a disease caused by 1 person who has had the disease. If the value of R_0> 1 then each infected individual can infect more than one other individual. If the value of R_0< 1 then an infected individual infects less than one other individual. By constructing the lyapunov function for the SIR model, the disease-free equilibrium state of the model will be found.
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References
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