Promotion Planning for Power Capacity Upgrade During Low-Demand Periods Based on Classical Forecasting and Material Stock Evaluation

Abstract

PT PLN (Persero) routinely implements power capacity upgrade promotions; however, these initiatives are often carried out without sufficient consideration of actual demand conditions and material availability. Such a practice can lead to service delays and inventory imbalances. This study develops a decision-making model to determine the optimal timing for power upgrade promotions based on demand forecasting and the estimated requirement of a key material component—Miniature Circuit Breakers (MCBs). The Additive Holt-Winters method is employed to identify low-demand periods, while the uplift forecasting approach serves as a conceptual reference for evaluating potential demand increases. Material requirement estimation serves as a foundation for assessing alignment with available stock levels. This model is expected to support PLN in planning efficient, data-driven promotions aligned with operational constraints.