The Impact of Local Temperature Variations on the Efficiency and Power Output of Solar Power Plants in Lombok Island

Abstract

Indonesia, located in the equatorial region, possesses vast solar energy potential reaching up to 200,000 MW. However, its utilization remains significantly low at only 0.08% of the total potential. In remote regions like Lombok Island, solar power plants serve as a strategic solution for clean and sustainable electricity, especially where access to fossil fuels is limited and costly. This study investigates the impact of local temperature variation on the efficiency and power output of PLTS in Lombok, a tropical region with high solar irradiance (4–6 kWh/m²/day) and elevated daytime temperatures (26–33°C). Using temperature and solar radiation data from 2019 to 2024, along with electricity output records from three major Solar Power Plant facilities (Pringgabaya, Selong, Sengkol, each 7 MWp), the research applies statistical correlation and regression modeling to quantify the relationships among temperature, irradiance, and energy output. The findings are expected to reveal a negative correlation between increased ambient temperature and photovoltaic efficiency due to rising electrical resistance in solar cells. Conversely, higher irradiance generally enhances power output, although its benefits may be offset by excessive heat. This study also incorporates Dipole Mode Index (DMI) analysis to understand the regional climatic influence on local temperature trends. DMI is selected due to its direct representation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon, which significantly affects weather patterns, sea surface temperature, and consequently, regional thermal variations in the Indonesian maritime continent. By focusing on DMI, this research captures a dominant mode of interannual climate variability that is particularly relevant to temperature fluctuations in Lombok. Furthermore, the study provides quantitative results for the Lombok region, including the percentage impact of each variable on power production. It also analyzes the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of temperature and solar radiation to identify periods of optimal and suboptimal solar plant performance. These findings are expected to support predictive energy output modeling and inform technical recommendations such as thermal mitigation strategies and material optimization for improving solar power performance in tropical environments. These insights are crucial for supporting Indonesia’s energy transition and achieving greater integration of renewable sources in its national energy mix.